Personalizing Sustainable Agriculture with Causal Machine Learning

To fight climate change and accommodate the increasing population, global crop production has to be strengthened. To achieve the "sustainable intensification" of agriculture, transforming it from carbon emitter to carbon sink is a priority, and understanding the environmental impact of agricultural management practices is a fundamental prerequisite to that. At the same time, the global agricultural landscape is deeply heterogeneous, with differences in climate, soil, and land use inducing variations in how agricultural systems respond to farmer actions. The "personalization" of sustainable agriculture with the provision of locally adapted management advice is thus a necessary condition for the efficient uplift of green metrics, and an integral development in imminent policies. Here, we formulate personalized sustainable agriculture as a Conditional Average Treatment Effect estimation task and use Causal Machine Learning for tackling it. Leveraging climate data, land use information and employing Double Machine Learning, we estimate the heterogeneous effect of sustainable practices on the field-level Soil Organic Carbon content in Lithuania. We thus provide a data-driven perspective for targeting sustainable practices and effectively expanding the global carbon sink.Comment: Accepted for publication and spotlight presentation at Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning: workshop at NeurIPS 202

Evaluating Digital Tools for Sustainable Agriculture using Causal Inference

In contrast to the rapid digitalization of several industries, agriculture suffers from low adoption of climate-smart farming tools. Even though AI-driven digital agriculture can offer high-performing predictive functionalities, it lacks tangible quantitative evidence on its benefits to the farmers. Field experiments can derive such evidence, but are often costly and time consuming. To this end, we propose an observational causal inference framework for the empirical evaluation of the impact of digital tools on target farm performance indicators. This way, we can increase farmers' trust by enhancing the transparency of the digital agriculture market, and in turn accelerate the adoption of technologies that aim to increase productivity and secure a sustainable and resilient agriculture against a changing climate. As a case study, we perform an empirical evaluation of a recommendation system for optimal cotton sowing, which was used by a farmers' cooperative during the growing season of 2021. We leverage agricultural knowledge to develop a causal graph of the farm system, we use the back-door criterion to identify the impact of recommendations on the yield and subsequently estimate it using several methods on observational data. The results show that a field sown according to our recommendations enjoyed a significant increase in yield (12% to 17%).Comment: Accepted for publication and spotlight presentation at Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning: workshop at NeurIPS 202

Earth-observation-based estimation and forecasting of particulate matter impact on solar energy in Egypt

This study estimates the impact of dust aerosols on surface solar radiation and solar energy in Egypt based on Earth Observation (EO) related techniques. For this purpose, we exploited the synergy of monthly mean and daily post processed satellite remote sensing observations from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), radiative transfer model (RTM) simulations utilizing machine learning, in conjunction with 1-day forecasts from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). As cloudy conditions in this region are rare, aerosols in particular dust, are the most common sources of solar irradiance attenuation, causing performance issues in the photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) plant installations. The proposed EO-based methodology is based on the solar energy nowcasting system (SENSE) that quantifies the impact of aerosol and dust on solar energy potential by using the aerosol optical depth (AOD) in terms of climatological values and day-to-day monitoring and forecasting variability from MODIS and CAMS, respectively. The forecast accuracy was evaluated at various locations in Egypt with substantial PV and CSP capacity installed and found to be within 5–12% of that obtained from the satellite observations, highlighting the ability to use such modelling approaches for solar energy management and planning (M&P). Particulate matter resulted in attenuation by up to 64–107 kWh/m2 for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and 192–329 kWh/m2 for direct normal irradiance (DNI) annually. This energy reduction is climatologically distributed between 0.7% and 12.9% in GHI and 2.9% to 41% in DNI with the maximum values observed in spring following the frequent dust activity of Khamaseen. Under extreme dust conditions the AOD is able to exceed 3.5 resulting in daily energy losses of more than 4 kWh/m2 for a 10 MW system. Such reductions are able to cause financial losses that exceed the daily revenue values. This work aims to show EO capabilities and techniques to be incorporated and utilized in solar energy studies and applications in sun-privileged locations with permanent aerosol sources such as Egypt

Wildfire monitoring using satellite images, ontologies and linked geospatial data

Advances in remote sensing technologies have allowed us to send an ever-increasing number of satellites in orbit around Earth. As a result, Earth Observation data archives have been constantly increasing in size in the last few years, and have become a valuable source of data for many scientific and application domains. When Earth Observation data is coupled with other data sources many pioneering applications can be developed. In this paper we show how Earth Observation data, ontologies, and linked geospatial data can be combined for the development of a wildfire monitoring service that goes beyond applications currently deployed in various Earth Observation data centers. The service has been developed in the context of European project TELEIOS that faces the challenges of extracting knowledge from Earth Observation data head-on, capturing this knowledge by semantic annotation encoded using Earth Observation ontologies, and combining these annotations with linked geospatial data to allow the development of interesting applications

Application of Level Set Methods for burned area mapping and evaluation against DLR's TET-1 hotspot data - a case study in Portugal

Automated extraction of fire-affected areas from satellite images is a crucial task for large scale, near real-time damage assessment. The discrimination between burned and unburned pixels is usually done by differentiating pre-/post scenes and categorizing the change rate, or by using empirically derived thresholds on a single scene. These approaches, however, require the setting of a threshold value for the discrimination, which has to be derived empirically for constricted region of interest. It is therefore not well adoptable to different regions of interest, turning this approach inappropriate for automatic extraction of burned areas in large, heterogeneous study areas. The aim of this paper is to test the Active Contour Level Set method, which does not rely on any thresholds, regarding geometric accuracy of burned area extraction

Earth observation : An integral part of a smart and sustainable city

Over the course of the 21st century, a century in which the urbanization process of the previous one is ever on the rise, the novel smart city concept has rapidly evolved and now encompasses the broader aspect of sustainability. Concurrently, there has been a sea change in the domain of Earth observation (EO) where scientific and technological breakthroughs are accompanied by a paradigm shift in the provision of open and free data. While the urban and EO communities share the end goal of achieving sustainability, cities still lack an understanding of the value EO can bring in this direction, an next a consolidated framework for tapping the full potential of EO and integrating it in their operational modus operandi. The “SMart URBan Solutions for air quality, disasters and city growth” H2020 project (SMURBS/ERA-PLANET) sits at this scientific and policy crossroad, and, by creating bottom-up EO-driven solutions against an array of environmental urban pressures, and by expanding the network of engaged and exemplary smart cities that push the state-of-the-art in EO uptake, brings the international ongoing discussion of EO for sustainable cities closer to home and contributes in this discussion. This paper advocates for EO as an integral part of a smart and sustainable city and aspires to lead by example. To this end, it documents the project's impacts, ranging from the grander policy fields to an evolving portfolio of smart urban solutions and everyday city operations, as well as the cornerstones for successful EO integration. Drawing a parallel with the utilization of EO in supporting several aspects of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, it aspires to be a point of reference for upcoming endeavors of city stakeholders and the EO community alike, to tread together, beyond traditional monitoring or urban planning, and to lay the foundations for urban sustainability.Peer reviewe

Wildfire monitoring via the integration of remote sensing with innovative information technologies

In the Institute for Space Applications and Remote Sensing of the National Observatory of Athens (ISARS/NOA) volumes of Earth Observation images of different spectral and spatial resolutions are being processed on a systematic basis to derive thematic products that cover a wide spectrum of applications during and after wildfire crisis, from fire detection and fire-front propagation monitoring, to damage assessment in the inflicted areas. The processed satellite imagery is combined with auxiliary geo-information layers, including land use/land cover, administrative boundaries, road and rail network, points of interest, and meteorological data to generate and validate added-value fire-related products. The service portfolio has become available to institutional End Users with a mandate to act on natural disasters and that have activated Emergency Support Services at a European level in the framework of the operational GMES projects SAFER and LinkER. Towards the goal of delivering integrated services for fire monitoring and management, ISARS/NOA employs observational capacities which include the operation of MSG/SEVIRI and NOAA/AVHRR receiving stations, NOA's in-situ monitoring networks for capturing meteorological parameters to generate weather forecasts, and datasets originating from the European Space Agency and third party satellite operators. The qualified operational activity of ISARS/NOA in the domain of wildfires management is highly enhanced by the integration of state-of-the-art Information Technologies that have become available in the framework of the TELEIOS (EC/ICT) project. TELEIOS aims at the development of fully automatic processing chains reliant on a) the effective storing and management of the large amount of EO and GIS data, b) the post-processing refinement of the fire products using semantics, and c) the creation of thematic maps and added-value services. The first objective is achieved with the use of advanced Array Database technologies, such as MonetDB, to enable efficiency in accessing large archives of image data and metadata in a fully transparent way, without worrying for their format, size, and location, as well as efficiency in processing such data using state-of-the-art implementations of image processing algorithms expressed in a high-level Scientific Query Language (SciQL). The product refinement is realized through the application of update operations that incorporate human evidence and human logic, with semantic content extracted from thematic information coming from auxiliary geo-information layers and sources, for reducing considerably the number of false alarms in fire detection, and improving the credibility of the burnt area assessment. The third objective is approached via the combination of the derived fire-products with Linked Geospatial Data, structured accordingly and freely available in the web, using Semantic Web technologies. These technologies are built on top of a robust and modular computational environment, to facilitate several wildfire applications to run efficiently, such as real-time fire detection, fire-front propagation monitoring, rapid burnt area mapping, after crisis detailed burnt scar mapping, and time series analysis of burnt areas. The approach adopted allows ISARS/NOA to routinely serve requests from the end-user community, irrespective of the area of interest and its extent, the observation time period, or the data volume involved, granting the opportunity to combine innovative IT solutions with remote sensing techniques and

Operational Wildfire Monitoring and Disaster Management Support Using State-of-the-art EO and Information Technologies

Fires have been one of the main driving forces in the evolution of plants and ecosystems, determining the current structure and composition of the Landscapes. However, significant alterations in the fire regime have occurred in the recent decades, primarily as a result of socioeconomic changes, increasing dramatically the catastrophic impacts of wildfires as it is reflected in the increase during the 20th century of both, number of fires and the annual area burnt. Therefore, the establishment of a permanent robust fire monitoring system is of paramount importance to implement an effective environmental management policy. Such an integrated system has been developed in the Institute for Space Applications and Remote Sensing of the National Observatory of Athens (ISARS/NOA). Volumes of Earth Observation images of different spectral and spatial resolutions are being processed on a systematic basis to derive thematic products that cover a wide spectrum of applications during and after wildfire crisis, from fire detection and fire-front propagation monitoring, to damage assessment in the inflicted areas. The processed satellite imagery is combined with auxiliary geo-information layers and meteorological data to generate and validate added-value fire-related products. The service portfolio has become available to institutional End Users with a mandate to act on natural disasters in the framework of the operational GMES projects SAFER and LinkER addressing fire emergency response and emergency support needs for the entire European Union. Towards the goal of delivering integrated services for fire monitoring and management, ISARS/NOA employs observational capacities which include the operation of MSG/SEVIRI and NOAA/AVHRR receiving stations, NOA’s in-situ monitoring networks for capturing meteorological parameters to generate weather forecasts, and datasets originating from the European Space Agency and third party satellite operators. The qualified operational activity of ISARS/NOA in the domain of wildfires management is highly enhanced by the integra

Managing big, linked, and open earth-observation data: Using the TELEIOS/LEO software stack

Big Earth-observation (EO) data that are made freely available by space agencies come from various archives. Therefore, users trying to develop an application need to search within these archives, discover the needed data, and integrate them into their application. In this article, we argue that if EO data are published using the linked data paradigm, then the data discovery, data integration, and development of applications becomes easier. We present the life cycle of big, linked, and open EO data and show how to support their various stages using the software stack developed by the European Union (EU) research projects TELEIOS and the Linked Open EO Data for Precision Farming (LEO). We also show how this stack of tools can be used to implement an operational wildfire-monitoring service

Operational wildfire monitoring and disaster management support using state-of-the-art EO and Information Technologies

textabstractFires have been one of the main driving forces in the evolution of plants and ecosystems, determining the current structure and composition of the Landscapes. However, significant alterations in the fire regime have occurred in the recent decades, primarily as a result of socioeconomic changes, increasing dramatically the catastrophic impacts of wildfires as it is reflected in the increase during the 20th century of both, number of fires and the annual area burnt. Therefore, the establishment of a permanent robust fire monitoring system is of paramount importance to implement an effective environmental management policy. Such an integrated system has been developed in the Institute for Space Applications and Remote Sensing of the National Observatory of Athens (ISARS/NOA). Volumes of Earth Observation images of different spectral and spatial resolutions are being processed on a systematic basis to derive thematic products that cover a wide spectrum of applications during and after wildfire crisis, from fire detection and fire-front propagation monitoring, to damage assessment in the inflicted areas. The processed satellite imagery is combined with auxiliary geo-information layers and meteorological data to generate and validate added-value fire-related products. The service portfolio has become available to institutional End Users with a mandate to act on natural disasters in the framework of the operational GMES projects SAFER and LinkER addressing fire emergency response and emergency support needs for the entire European Union. Towards the goal of delivering integrated services for fire monitoring and management, ISARS/NOA employs observational capacities which include the operation of MSG/SEVIRI and NOAA/AVHRR receiving stations, NOA’s in-situ monitoring networks for capturing meteorological parameters to generate weather forecasts, and datasets originating from the European Space Agency and third party satellite operators. The qualified operational activity of ISARS/NOA in the domain of wildfires management is highly enhanced by the integration of innovative Information Technologies that have become available in the framework of the TELEIOS (EC/ICT) project. Through this activity a fully automatic processing chain has been developed reliant on, a) the effective storing and management of the large amount of EO and GIS data, b) the post-processing refinement of the fire products using semantics, and c) the timely creation of fire extent and damage thematic maps. These technologies are built on top of a robust and modular computational environment, to facilitate several wildfire applications to run efficiently, such as real-time fire detection, fire-front propagation monitoring, rapid burnt area mapping, after crisis detailed burnt scar mapping, and time series analysis of burnt areas. The approach adopted allows ISARS/NOA to routinely serve requests from the end-user community, such as Civil Protection and Forestry Services, irrespective of the location and size of the area of interest, the observation time period, or the size of data volume involved, granting the opportunity to combine innovative IT solutions with remote sensing techniques and algorithms for wildfire monitoring and management